Serving Waitsburg, Dayton and the Touchet Valley
Serving Waitsburg, Dayton and the Touchet Valley
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White wheat bids in Portland for late September (4 months ago) were close to $6.30 per bushel (Chicago was at $6.40). This week the bid is about $6.33 for white (Chicago $6.16). Wheat prices have accomplished very little in those months in the way of a trend, and there is little in the fundamental supply and demand balance sheet that appears large enough to trigger a serious breakout unless weather becomes really extreme ahead of harvest. There may be some who would argue from a more positive position, maybe based on a review of the difference...
The overall wheat market is in a follower mode right now. Corn was the primary driver of last Thursday's 37-cent collapse in Chicago. The USDA statisticians found 166 million bushels more corn than the average grain analyst had expected. When corn went limit down, wheat was bound to follow, as a significant bit of recent demand for wheat had been for feed to animals instead of expensive corn. Now the math works better for corn feeding in many locations. The drop in Chicago wheat triggered a quick 20- to 30-cent negative white wheat price...
Wheat producers or owners please read with caution and especially not before bedtime. Wheat exports from the U.S. are lagging. Several familiar factors lead to this, including recent dollar strength against other currencies, adequate to abundant production from competing sources, and weak or confused demand among normally strong buyers. Exports are the key fundamental variable for wheat prices. This is especially true for white-wheat producers in the Pacific Northwest, as some 80 percent of the regional wheat crop is consumed overseas. The...
Wheat, gold and the U.S. Dollar -- all internationally visible, all affecting everyday life for most of us, even if we pay no attention at all. Wheat export prices are determined by competitive offers submitted to the requesting buyer, so the fluctuating value of the dollar relative to the buyer's native currency has a direct impact from Oka-san's shopping basket in Sasebo all the way back to the wallet of the guy sitting on the combine in Walla Walla County. If the dollar is weaker versus the...
Chicago wheat price swings have made business uncomfortable for the last 18 months, with swings ranging more than a dollar per bushel in any given 60-day period. Chicago is in the spotlight because it is the most visible, but Kansas City, Minneapolis and even Portland wheat markets are in the same whirlpool. Making decisions about things financial, be it wheat, 401k funds, CD's, stocks or even municipal bonds has become an exercise in frustration and anxiety even for professionals. Even the isolated among us are seeing and feeling the erosion o...
The general trend in wheat prices, even with $2 per bushel swings, has been negative for nine months since February 2011, from highs at or above $8.67 per bushel. High points in the pattern have been lower than previous highs, and each low has been lower than the previous (book definition of a downtrend). As of Monday, Dec. 19, the leading Chicago wheat contract was trading at $5.84, $2.83 cents lower than the February 2011 high and a new low dating back to July 2010. There was no surprise in this, as the supply of wheat in the world has been...
WAITSBURG - She worked all day every day. Chop the wood, haul it into the woodshed, split the rounds into useable chunks, haul it into the house, feed the stove for cooking or warmth, clean out the ashes, pump water from the well, haul it into the house, heat the water in buckets for washing or bathing, make candles or buy them, buy kerosene and lamp wicks if available, fill the lamps, trim the wicks, store the milk, cream, potatoes or apples in the cellar, smoke the meat, salt the pork, dry...
End-of-year position adjustments coming up? Most very large futures traders are holding onto extremely heavy net short-sold positions in Chicago wheat. The other major wheat contracts in Kansas City hard red winter and Minneapolis spring also reflect net short speculative po- sitions, although less ponderous than Chicago. Since this category of traders is known for rapidly shifting from one side of the ledger to the other periodically, this big bulge in net-sold positions will ultimately lead to a run to the upside for wheat prices, probably...
The spring winds that are blowing across the US Mid- western wheat belt are still cold, but they don't quite have the winter teeth that can eat little wheat plants the way they did last week. Overall US Spring wheat planting progress is nil in North Dakota and is reported at only 6% com- plete overall compared to 12% normally. Moisture has improved slightly in some of the Western win- ter wheat states, but conditions have not changed much in the last 10 days. Taken as a whole, the weather factor for wheat is not yet enough to inspire market...
