U.S. Production Down For 2011

Projected ending stocks for 2011/12, at 670 million bushels, are down 191 million bushels from 2010/11 as supplies decrease more than use. Total wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected down 217 million bushels because of both smaller carry- in stocks and production from 2010/11. Total projected uses are down 26 million bushels from 2010/11.

Total production is projected at 2,106 million bushels, down 102 million bushels from 2010/11.

Winter Wheat Production Estimates by Class

Hard red winter (HRW) production is forecast to be 791 million bushels, up 14 million bushels from June, but down 227 million bushels from a year ago. The higher planted area for the 2011 crop has been more than offset by the higher abandonment rates and lower yields due to the severe drought on the central and southern plains. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2011 from 2010 are 29.1 million acres, up 0.5 million acres; 21.5 million acres, down 2.5 million acres; and 36.7 bushels per acre, down 5.7 bushels per acre, respectively.

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) July 12 Crop Production reported that drought conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas throughout the growing season accelerated crop development. As of July 3, harvest progress was significantly ahead of normal and nearing completion in these States.

Soft red winter (SRW) production is forecast at 458 million bushels, up 24 million bushels from June and up 220 million bushels from last year. SRW production is forecast higher for 2011 with higher planted and harvested areas and higher yield. The 2011 crop area has recovered from 2010, when a rain-delayed row-crop harvest and low prices reduced SRW seedings in the fall of 2009. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2011 from 2010 are 8.3 million acres, up 3.0 million acres; 7.3 million acres, up 2.9 million acres; and 62.9 bushels per acre, up 8.6 bushels per acre, respectively.

Crop Production reported that while excellent growing conditions during the month in many of the SRW areas led to significant yield increases from the June forecast, wet conditions have negatively impacted the crop in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Record high yields are expected in Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

White winter wheat production for 2011 is forecast to total 243 million bushels, up 3 million bushels from June and up 14 million bushels from a year ago. Of the white production total, 12 million bushels are hard white (HW) and 231 million bushels are soft white (SW). The 2010 production of HW and SW were 13 million bushels and 216 million bushels, respectively.

The 2011 HW and SW planted and harvested areas are 0.34 million acres and 0.28 million acres; and 3.33 million acres and 3.21 million acres, respectively. The previous year, the HW and SW planted and harvested were 0.33 million acres and 0.29 million acres; and 3.18 million acres and 3.04 million acres, respectively. HW 2011 yield is 41.3 bushels per acre compared to 46.7 bushels in 2010. SW 2011 yield is 72.0 bushels per acre compared to 70.9 bushels in 2010.

Spring Wheat Production Estimates by Class

Hard red spring (HRS) production is forecast at 504 million bushels, down 66 million bushels from 2010. HRS production is forecast down with lower planted and harvested areas and lower yield. Excessive moisture and cool temperatures on the Northern Plains resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings. Forecast planted area, harvested area, yield, and year-to-year changes for 2011, respectively, are 12.9 million acres, down 0.1 million acres; 12.5 million acres, down 0.1 million acres; and 40.4 bushels per acre, down 4.7 bushels per acre.

Crop Production reported that flooding and prolonged wet weather has slowed crop development in most States. By July 3, heading in North Dakota and Montana had not yet begun, and was 48 and 32 percentage points behind the 5-year average, respectively. As a result of the wet conditions that delayed planting, forecasted yields are down from last year in all States except South Dakota.

White spring production is forecast to total 46 million bushels unchanged from a year ago. Of the white spring production total, 9 million bushels are hard white spring (HWS) and 37 million bushels are soft white spring (SWW). The HWS 2011 planted and harvested areas are 131,000 acres and 127,000 acres, respectively.

The previous year, the HWS harvested and planted areas are 130,000 acres and 127,000 acres, respectively. HWS 2011 yield is 70.6 bushels per acre compared to 72.9 bushels in 2010. The SWS 2011 planted and harvested areas are 641,000 acres and 624,000 acres, respectively. The previous year, the SWS harvested and planted areas were 599,000 acres and 587,000 acres, respectively. SWS 2011 yield is 59.8 bushels per acre compared to 62.6 bushels in 2010.

Durum wheat production is forecast to total 64 million bushels, down 43 million bushels from a year ago. Durum production is forecast down with lower planted and harvested areas and lower yield. Excessive moisture and cool temperatures on the Northern Plains resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings which have reduced planted area to the lowest since 1960. Forecast planted area, harvested area, yield, and year-to-year changes for 2011, respectively, are 1.7 million acres, down 872,000 acres; 1.6 million acres, down 882,000 acres; and 38.7 bushels per acre, down 3.7 bushels per acre.

Crop Production reported that yield forecasts are down from last year in all major producing States. Due to flooding and excessively wet conditions, crop development in Montana and North Dakota, the two largest producing States, are significantly behind normal.

NASS' July 11 Crop Progress reported that as of July 10, 73 percent of the 2011 spring wheat was rated good to excellent and only 4 percent was rated poor to very poor.