CROPS

Thirty-nine months have passed since February of 2009, when the stock market was at its lowest point since spring of 1997, a 15-year low!

Twenty-five of those recent months ended higher than the previous month, 14 ended unchanged or lower, as the Dow Jones Industrial average has climbed more than 6,000 points, an 87 percent increase! It has been a profoundly powerful move right into an election year. Investors, even the small 401(k) kind, are feeling relatively relaxed today. All eyes on Europe.

What does it mean, "antiausterity"? Will the socialists in France find a way to grow out of trouble without having to stop spending? There are some doubts, which is why the stock market trend has stalled for a moment. Maybe it is time to take some of that nice move up off of the table.

Wheat is still in a downward price channel, driven by the healthy looking crops of corn and wheat coming to harvest soon. The consumers of wheat always anticipate some easy pricing and generous supply over the next 30-60 days, as harvest bills have to be paid, so wheat is for sale. Corn is not going to be a positive influence, although consumption and sales to China will keep supply fairly tight to adequate for the year.

USDA's Supply and Demand Report due out this week will be the basis for much of the thought process in the grain markets this season. Many are expecting adjustments reflecting larger production numbers.

A big factor to keep an eye on this week: reaction to the European political changes, mostly illustrated by how the U.S. Treasury Bond market moves. The bonds have moved up very strongly into the present from a low in March, refl ecting a long-term interest rate trend toward lower money cost.

Energy prices are on the upswing again, and even natural gas is showing some signs of life, coming off of 13-year lows. Crude oil remains in a downward trend, but that is very likely to be stable, keeping gasoline and diesel in the key "tolerance zones" they have been in since last year.

Looks like a good summer coming up if you are paying attention, but opportunity and risk are married, and the only good solution to keeping risk under control is education.

Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital.