CROPS

Wheat prices along with many other markets this week are waiting for a push from any domi- nant factor that will allow a direction. Chicago wheat managed to gain about 15 cents per bushel since last week at this time, but in this environment that is a mere wiggle. White wheat prices for Portland delivery also gained about 14 cents in the same week with current levels near $8.78 per bushel.

Few are willing to take major positions ahead of this Friday's USDA Grain Stocks as of Sept. 1 and Small Grains Summary Reports. The trade, including analysts from all over the world, will spend the days previous to the 5:30 a.m. Pacific Time release of the reports posting and comparing various guesses about the actual figures. If the average guess is close, then the market will heave a sigh and go on grinding away at the range established now for many weeks. If the trade is surprised by what the government statisticians publish, then we will go for a ride, sometimes a violent ride, depending on the magnitude of the disparity. Hence the market is unlikely to be pushing very far in either direction ahead of the reports.

It is dry in Australia, but there are forecasts for rain in wheat production areas. Rain is also in the forecasts for US hard red winter wheat areas that are in planting motion right now, especially in Kansas and Colorado. Market influence from this distant crop effect is muted.

US wheat prices in the global export market is priced above French offerings. Russia continues to capture sales, including the most recent contract to Iraq. The Russians are due to become less aggressive with export sales as they have run through most of their exportable supplies for this season, but there is no substance yet to the idea that they may embargo further sales, although domestic prices for wheat in Russia are the highest they have been in a decade or more.

US corn harvest is far ahead of schedule at a record 39 percent complete compared to 12 percent this time last year and a five year average of 13 percent. Winter wheat planting is on schedule at 25 percent in the ground versus 27 percent average by now. The last half of corn and soybean harvest is expected to be the heavier yield- ing part, as the most drought-affected areas were to the south and southeast.

Wheat does not need to go up from here to ration supply, but the potential shortage of soybeans in the global export markets and an already short corn crop will likely keep things from getting too negative for the next few weeks.

Last week's article incorrectly cited the CFTC Com- mitment of Traders (COT) Report as showing "com- mercial" firms holding net "long" positions in Chicago wheat futures. The actual positions held are extremely net "short," suggesting a lower price ahead. This indica- tor is a very slow moving factor, but can trigger large moves once it becomes dominant. It represents a large red flag for wheat owners.

Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaran- teed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or op- tions is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital.