CROPS

People are struggling with decision making in all of the markets as we close in on the end of the year and the end of the Mayan calendar.

Outside of those habitual seekers of reasons to "party as if there were no tomorrow," there is little value in all the dire predictions of cataclysm at the winter solstice on Dec. 21. According to a recent web post from a reasonably cred- ible source of information (NASA) in a world awash with nonsense, just as your desk calendar ends on Dec. 31 and world keeps going on, the same goes for the Mayan calendar, NASA explained. "Just because you run out of pages doesn't mean life as we know it will cease to exist."

What this means for the wheat market is the end of the cal- endar year will help not at all in determining which way the price of wheat will move once it breaks out of the very long channel that wheat has traded in since last July. There are fac- tors that are contending for dominance and the voices observ- ing these are growing more strident in the last week or two, but as of Tuesday, Dec. 4, none have gained the upper hand.

The rising stridence is a generic factor that often accom- panies the usual violent price move that takes place when any long-standing range finally dies. This is no time to be complacent, but stress is unnecessary, the fundamentals do not presently support longer-term extended moves. If the setup changes it will become visible, and a trend will become available for decision making.

Hard red winter wheat areas in the U.S. remain critically dry. Markets will be watching how much snow shows up to anticipate spring results.

Egypt finally bought U.S. wheat for the first time this crop year. Over the last weekend they accepted offers for 280,000 metric tonnes of U.S. wheat, including 150,000 metric tonnes of Pacific Northwest white wheat for January-February ship- ment. Competitive offers from European sources were $10- $20 per tonne higher. The trade has been anticipating a surge of U.S. wheat exports for some weeks now, based on the idea that the Russians and others have exhausted their exportable wheat supplies, but in recent tender offers, the player list has not shortened noticeably. Romania, France and Argentina all offered wheat for sale last weekend. On deck, there are tenders for Syria, Jordan and Iraq. The cumulative shipment pace of U.S. wheat is just 42 percent of USDA projections versus a normal 52 percent.

The trend is slightly nega- tive at this point, although the range remains. A break below $8.50 for Chicago March contracts (only 5-10 cents below present levels) will be cutting new price ground and will suggest more negative.

Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reli- able, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or complete- ness. The risk of loss in trad- ing futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds com- mitted should be risk capital.