CROPS

A ll it takes to change the world from night to day is a USDA report. Last Friday's multiple statisti- cal summaries included quarterly wheat inventories, monthly supply and demand estimates and a US winter wheat acreage planted total.

Every January these re- ports put a sort of cap on the old crop year, setting the stage for the new crop to become center of attention. This time the report was price-friendly, showing 300 million bushels less wheat in storage than the average analyst-on-the-street was expecting.

Ending Stocks, the bottom line of the Supply and Demand report, showed a 38 million bushel monthly reduction when the trade was expecting an increase. And the winter wheat seeded acreage came out with the biggest surprise; only about 500,000 acres more wheat planted last fall than the previous year, when many in the trade had expected more thana2millionacreexpan- sion.

It seems unlikely that wheat prices could return to the double-black-diamond downslope down which they had been skiing since the end of November, dropping $1.50 per bushel in Chicago wheat futures, and 70 cents in Portland white wheat bids in that time. Now we are facing a new set of dominant factors, including continued drought in major parts of the US grain production regions along with good growing conditions in Northern Europe and the Ukraine and a rising din of debate about the US debt ceiling (another artifi cial and political deadline).

The export sales to- tals will be dissected and summed every day for a while, as the trade looks to the big importers to do their last few purchase tenders of the season in the next 30-60 days. Nothing crazy. No looming disaster (unless the wobbling and backfiring from the global financial sys- tem increases until it heaves up a blast of black smoke and dies on the side of the road).

The trend in wheat prices has turned upward, but that does not mean an immediate return to last fall's highs. The adjustments that are under- way in the global wheat price balance just ahead are likely to yield wide swings based on the strength or weakness of the US dollar, the pur- chasing activities of foreign importers and as the season comes along toward spring, the dryness of the Midwest.

Meanwhile, being slower to sell in an uptrend and faster to sell on a downward slope is easyhellip;all you have to do is know the trend.

Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reli- able, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or complete- ness. The risk of loss in trad- ing futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds com- mitted should be risk capital.