CROPS

The wheat market is not hungry. The mind of the great lumbering beast is not focused clearly, as spring is yet a time away and there is sufficient wheat to last for the next 90 days. Most of the major importers of the world were aggressively buying just a couple of months ago. They have covered their short-term requirements, leaving relatively small adjustments and opportunistic buying on the agenda. So the market wanders, with no particular place to go.

As the calendar rolls onward, it appears that the Midwest- ern wheat and corn belts have seen some moderate moisture this winter, but not enough to decisively close the droughthellip; just enough to keep the market from being really anxious about the next crop. As the wheat now dormant awakens, especially in the western portion of winter wheat zone (i.e. Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska), the daily weather update will become the price-driver. That may happen early this year, if the patterns now present are sustained.

So the short-term awareness of the trade is focused on weak export sales and monthly USDA reports that tally the supply and demand figures for wheat, both domestic and global. The next such report is due this week on Friday morning. No drama is expected, but without other factors that dominate the price pattern, most traders are content to wait, rather than trying to out-guess the report. Lower trade volume and indecisive movements are the mode.

The short-term trend is lower. Chicago has moved down about 50 cents in the last week or so and is resting in the middle of the recent range. The low end is about 20-25 cents lower, while the upper end is about 60-70 cents higher.

Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital.