CROPS

A s the old screen door slaps shut and the grain markets step off the porch ready to go to work, the jacket collar is turned up against the chilly wet wind. Snow is in the forecast for some plains states and rain is slowing down the corn planters and starting to worry spring wheat planters in Canada.

Late corn planting, which could lead to a shift of corn acreage to later-planted soybeans, is not a big concern yet. The optimum window of planting is generally open until the second week of May for a wide swath of the Midwest, and US producers of grain can really move quickly if they need to. Extra moisture is not the worst of problems, but any factor that affects production is in the spotlight right now, and the market has no serious distractions from "outside" markets. The short-term general influence is price-positive, but the season is one of swift changes and a shot of more accurate information is pending for wheat, as the official annual crop inspection tour kicks off in various states.

The Pacific Northwest wheat crop is in pretty good shape, with the USDA crop condition index above "nor- mal" at 107 in Washington and Idaho, unchanged from last week. Oregon wheat's rating is at 99, down from 104 a week ago. The overall US wheat crop's rating is not quite as strong, showing 81, down from 84 a couple of weeks ago. The market is acutely aware of these numbers, so the influence is built-in already, but this time of year, weather drama is easy to ignite.

Wheat prices have been trapped for the entire month of April within the range defined by the two-day, 76-cent per bushel downward event triggered by the last USDA reports on March 28. It shows more inventory of grains than the trade had expected and weaker export sales than hoped. Since then, export sales of wheat have been better, making the average needed to hit USDA's projections for June end of the crop-year calendar achievable at just under 25 million bushels per week.

Chicago wheat July contracts are pushing the top end of the chart envelope, but it will take something more dramatic than what is on the table right now to push much higher. The trend line remains flat- to-lower, even with the push upward of the last week. A break-out above $7.40 in the Chicago July contract would express more en- thusiasm than is currently present.

Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guar- anteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/ or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital.