CROPS

New four-week low prices printed at all three major wheat futures exchanges Monday, but there was little pressure to follow through. Tuesday allowed a little bounce back up with no major news influence to account for it.

The wheat market shadow is moving across the landscape slowly, as the combine crews are about to set up camp in Kansas fields, with Oklahoma running about 20% completed. Initial yields reported from Texas and Oklahoma are average. Weekly export sales for wheat were reported Monday in line with expectations.

White wheat markets for the Pacific Northwest remain under a cloud.There has been no new information released with regard to the so-far-isolated discovery in late May of a patch of wheat allegedly bearing the genetic ID of a strain of wheatdeveloped by Monsanto in a test program known as "Roundup Ready."

Although the test wheat produced under the program was deemed fit for human consumption by US regulators, nega- tive perceptions by consumers in Japan and Korea have been strong enough to make production and sale of Roundup Ready wheat non-viable. The program was cancelled and all supplies of the test strain were carefully collected and destroyed, and there has been no GE wheat produced in the Pacific Northwest for many years. Buyers in Portland have been cautiously buy- ing wheat at reduced prices, hoping for a resolution, but work- ing in an information vacuum. The major futures markets have essentially ignored the issue so far.

Chicago traders would notice a decline in the September futures price below $6.80, likely to attract sellers. Any rally in prices in the short run is head-on against the prevailing wind of expanding wheat harvest in the U.S., as well as Russia and across the northern hemisphere.

The trend is weakly lower, bumping along the bottom of the almost 4-month-old sideways channel. Kansas City July wheat futures will generate some enthusiastic selling on a decline below $7.04 (April 1 low), but the September contract is about to become the lead, about a dime higher.Without posi- tive factors yet to be observed, the price of wheat is unlikely to move up much from present ranges.

This market seems to be complacency-driven. Even the "outside" markets are quiet. Long-term interest rates have moved up since the first of May, but are in a month-old pause pattern. The stock market averages are working on a new up- ward leg, or at least a test of the May highs amid an absence of threats from European banking issues and a quiet Pacific Rim economic environment. Copper, often a very good indicator of global economic activity, continues moving steadily lower from the early 2013 high point at about $3.71 per pound, now testing October 2011 lows in the $3.00 to $3.15 range. Crude oil is at the same price traded back in September of 2011, with a slight upward tilt toward the psychologically sensi- tive $100 per barrel mark. Diesel hasn't done much since the summer 2012 rally from $2.51 to $3.26, trading around $2.96 this week. Many traders have tightened the focus of their vi- sion down to short-term moves based on technical factors.On balance, buyer enthusiasm is low, but they are not running scared.

Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reli- able, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or complete- ness. The risk of loss in trad- ing futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or op- tions, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds com- mitted should be risk capital.