CROPS

A fter a very smooth and orderly decline that has last- ed three weeks, the wheat price has paused. There is always a kind of nervous twitch exhibited when the market reaches the end or beginning of a significant move. Some would call this "indecision," but a week-long sideways pattern with quick jumps back and forth that last only hours at most is the mark of a market in "read" mode.''

The last week saw us through a key USDA monthly report, all the more intensely observed as we missed the monthly report for October during The Shutdown. The ef- fect on wheat prices was minor, eliciting only a quick run to both sides, but the session did produce a new low. Even though there have been signs of active buying interest at times, the pattern does not include many daily closing prices above the ten-day average line, suggesting weak buyer mo- tivation.

Corn harvest is nearing completion, and has revealed a historically heavy crop. The sympathetic pressure on wheat from big corn and soybean crops has already been built in to prices, but the buyers have no reason to rush into any grain position at present. Fall wheat crop planting in the northern hemisphere has moved ahead on schedule under good conditions. The wheat growing in the major produc- tion countries in the southern hemisphere is in good shape, with harvest starting in the northern parts of Argentina this month. There are no fundamental production problems looming in the world right now, which leaves wheat trad- ers having to assess money movements and technical chart patterns for directional ideas. Smaller moves and less vivid trends usually become the basic behavior until more signifi- cant factors emerge.

The current trend for Chicago wheat, although "mature" is downward. It would take a sustained move above about $7 for wheat to prove out a new attitude. Meanwhile, the selling side has little new fundamental argument to justify large new positions. Boring. Maybe we should move over to the butter futures for some excitement...

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