Market Bullets

For the 11 trading ses­sions ending Tues­day, Chicago wheat prices have traded within 20 cents per bushel of the lowest price since July 2010. There is doubt in the minds of would-be buyers; those that normally like to try to buy bottoming patterns, those that think seasonal patterns are likely to be completed now and those that are holding very profitable short-sold trades established at much higher prices over the last couple of months.

There are signs that US wheat is working its way into competitive global wheat marketing channels. Egypt purchased a vessel load (60 thousand metric tonnes, or about 2.2 million bushels) of US soft red win­ter wheat on Tuesday.

This is the first sale to Egypt from US sources for many weeks, as Russian and French wheat sup­plies have dominated the arena. Even with this bit of evidence that US-sourced wheat is competing well and the fact that overall global wheat trade has seen very healthy volumes in the last week or two, the price has not reacted yet.

The other influential grain prices, corn and soy­beans, have not moved any more vigorously than wheat, leaving the overall market environment winter- dreary and a bit too quiet.

This is not a good time to become lackadaisical. Add­ing up the factors: Weather: Cold wind-exposed wheat in Northwest and Midwest have some winterkill show­ing, although not measur­able until emergence from dormancy. Global econom­ics: Egypt (most powerful wheat buyer in Middle Eastern region) and Saudi Arabia both buying signifi­cant amounts of wheat. US Dollar Index is in a very choppy, sideways pattern, but most recent moves are to downside, making US wheat exports less expen­sive.

All of these are potential positive factors. Negatives are mostly well known and built-in to price at this point; mostly that there is no shortage of wheat for sale all over the world, and new crops in the US are only a little more than three months away. The big funds continue to hold big short- sold positions (50,976 net contracts at Chicago), and commercials are still very long-bought (69,295 net contracts in last weekly CFTC report).

This really is a recipe for a short-term move up, but there are very few normally bullish traders that have not been soundly thrashed for entering or holding onto wheat positions for the last three months, and no-one seems to be willing to step in front of that big nega­tive wheel while it is still turning. Eventually, and maybe soon, there will be a reaction to the upside, although the projection upward is limited and in the absence of solid funda­mental changes, probably short-term.

It can be painful for wheat owners and traders to wait for a new trend, but the wheat trading corollary to Murphy's law applies: "If a sale is made after holding for a long period of negative markets, it will occur at or near the low of the seasonhellip; and if a purchase is made to recover already sold wheat, the downtrend will imme­diately resume." Of course that is pessimistic, and there are no pessimists left hold­ing wheat at this point. The trend is still "flat-to-lower", but it is time to prepare for early spring changes in the market environment.

Information and opin­ions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guar­anteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/ or options is substantial. Each investor must consid­er whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your ac­count. All funds committed should be risk capital.