Mariner's Playoff hopes still alive

The Mariners have gone 14-7 in their last twenty-one games and find themselves in third place in the American League West. The Houston Astros, who are currently in second place, have gone 8-13 over their last twenty-one games and had a six-game losing streak in the middle of that span. This puts the Mariners just one and a half games behind the Houston Astros with twelve games left to play, including three games against Houston in Seattle. For Seattle to have a chance to move into second place and guarantee a playoff spot, they will probably need to win all three of those games against Houston.

Most of the Astros problems this year center around pitching. Justin Verlander is still on the injured list and hasn’t pitched since his opening day win against the Mariners. Gerrit Cole was lost in free agency and Lance McCullers Jr. has an earned run average of 5.79. Houston’s bullpen is ranked 29th out of thirty teams in baseball.

Not all of the Astros problems can be blamed on pitching. The Astros two best players haven’t hit all season. Jose Altuve, a former American League MVP, is playing at a below replacement level with a .224/.284/.322 triple-slash line and a -0.6 WAR. Alex Bregman, Houston’s All-Star third baseman, seemingly has forgotten how to hit against right-handed pitchers this year, batting .203/.306/.378 in seventy-four at-bats.

Two of Seattle’s trade deadline acquisitions have played well in limited action. Ty France is hitting .308/.400/.564 with two home runs in his first eleven games with the Mariners. Catcher Luis Torrens is hitting .286/.355/.464 with a home run in his first eight games as a Mariner. The starting pitching for Seattle is peaking at the right time.

In his last five starts, Marco Gonzales has four wins, and a 3.18 earned run average. Justus Sheffield has a 2-1 record over his previous five starts with a 3.52 earned run average. Justin Dunn has also pitched well over his last five starts with two wins, and a 3.68 earned run average.

Seattle’s record currently stands at 22-26, with twelve games remaining. Houston is sitting at 23-24, with thirteen games left. If both teams ended the season with identical records, Houston would advance to the playoffs because they have a better head to head record against Seattle. Seattle must finish at least one game ahead of Houston to advance. Houston’s magic number to make the playoffs is eleven while Seattle’s is fifteen. A magic number is the combination of wins needed by that team and losses needed by its competitor in the standings. For example, if the Mariners finish the season with seven wins and five losses, then Houston would have to finish the season with five wins and eight losses for Seattle to make the playoffs. In this example, the Mariners 7 wins + 8 Houston losses equal the magic number 15. This would give the Mariners a final record of 29-31 and Houston a final record of 28-32.