Is James Paxton enough to make Mariners competitive?

The Mariners have signed free agent pitcher James Paxton to a one-year $8.5 million contract with bonuses that could push that up to a total of $10 million. The incentives are based on the number of starts that James Paxton makes in the upcoming season. He could receive up to an additional $750,000 should he start in a total of ten games and add up to another $750,000 should he start twenty-two games.

Paxton slots into the top spot in the rotation and gives the Mariners something they haven't had since he left, an ace. That is if he can stay healthy for the entire season. Paxton's fastball velocity was down last year to 92 mph, but he has already been clocked at 94 mph last December during a throwing session for scouts. There were scouts from up to twenty teams in attendance for the throwing session. Can Paxton rebound this season and turn back into "The Big Maple," or will injuries plague him again this season, making him firewood?

Paxton's last fully healthy year was in 2013, which was the season he was called up from the Tacoma Rainers. He started four games for the Mariners that season starting in September and won three of them. Since then, he has had a litany of injuries. Being traded to the Yankees in November of 2018 didn't end his injury issues. During his two years with the Yankees, he had a knee injury in 2019, followed by off-season back surgery and an arm injury last season, causing him to make only five starts. You can safely say that the Mariners won the trade with New York as they have Paxton back and picked up Justus Sheffield in the process.

Projection systems think Paxton will start somewhere around twenty-three games next season, which may be doable since the Mariners will have a six-man rotation this year. Even a partial season from Paxton is likely worth an extra two wins to the Mariners in the standings for 2021. An entire season from Paxton is probably worth four wins. Unfortunately, adding even four additional wins probably puts this teams' win total into the 77-79 range. That will keep Seattle out of last place in the American League West but won't be good enough for a playoff spot.

Don't be surprised if the Mariners turn around and trade Paxton again depending on his health and where the team is in the standings during the trade deadline.