2021 wheat harvest yield forecast lowest since 2015

Impact from the drought varies from field to field, slope to slope, and farm to farm.

WASHINGTON-The full impact of the 2021 drought is beginning to show as farmers harvest a smaller-than-average wheat crop.

"The crop is probably 30% below the average," said Byron Behne, Senior Marketing Manager for Northwest Grain Growers in Walla Walla. "Last year was way above average; it was an exceptionally high-yielding year. We might handle half of the wheat that we did last summer."

Based on June 1 conditions, The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast 2021 Washington wheat production at 96.3 million bushels, down more than 60,000 bushels from the previous year. An average of 57 bushels per acre, down from 71 bushels in 2020, is expected.

The quality of wheat is highly variable this year, as well. Re-crop fields that had wheat last year and spring wheat have taken the brunt of the damage, while wheat planted on summer fallow ground has had significantly less impact, according to Behne. Summer fallow is the practice of keeping a field vegetation-free for a growing season, allowing the land to retain rainfall water for future crops.

"Wheat on true summer fallow, winter wheat on true fallow acres, has not been affected as much as wheat on recrop or spring crops in general," Behne explained. "There was more moisture in the ground for the crops to draw on."

Washington State declared a drought emergency on July 14. Today, most of Columbia County (60.49%), and the majority of Walla Walla County (88.6%), are still experiencing the effects of exceptional drought, according to drought.gov. So far, 2021 has been the third driest year in 127 years of data collection for Walla Walla County and the 7th driest year for Columbia County.

The overall impact of the drought will vary from field to field, with factors like slope direction, ground quality, and area all playing a part in the wheat crop's success. South-facing slopes are most likely to have a harder time producing quality wheat this year due to lack of moisture and exposure to the heat.

The drought's impacts are meeting expectations. Behne said that the last time Washington experienced anything like this was in 2015. Many of the same issues are arising once again, including wheat having higher proteins than the market desires, test weights are lower, and 2021 yields are lower than those in 2015.

Wheat prices, however, are soaring. Behne said that rising prices had been influenced by tight stocks at the end of 2020 and an anticipated small crop.

"These prices are the highest I can ever remember during harvest," Behne said. "The grain remaining in the bin prior to harvest, last year's ending stocks, were as tight as we have ever seen them. There was hardly any wheat left to draw from."